Rainfall Over Eastern Peninsular India-A Look Into the Long-Term Correlational Pattern

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Authors

  • Rashmi Rekha Devi
     Department of Mathematics, Amity University, Kolkata, India Major Arterial Road, Action Area II, Newtown, Kolkata-700135. ,IN
  • Surajit Chattopadhyay
     Department of Mathematics, Amity University, Kolkata, India Major Arterial Road, Action Area II, Newtown, Kolkata-700135. ,IN

Keywords:

Rainfall, Markovian Analysis, Normal Distribution, Rescaled-Range Analysis, Hurst Exponent.

Abstract

The work presented here uses Markov Chain analysis to provide a thorough understanding of the rainfall over Eastern Peninsula region of India (EPI). The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), which has been seen through normal distribution fitting, has a greater influence on the overall pattern of annual rainfall over eastern peninsula India than the post-monsoon season. The rainfall time series, discretized to a binary time series, has been demonstrated to be serially independent via a Markovian analysis. For all the time series being taken into consideration, a rescaled-range analysis is carried out. It has been noted that the Hurst exponent is smaller than 0.5 in each of the three examples. The time series, do not exhibit significant long-term auto-correlation. Rather, there is a long-term fluctuation between high and low rainfall values.

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Published

2022-12-01

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Volume 19, Issue 2, December 2022

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